Decline Projected for ADHD Market in the US and Major Markets by 2032
The projected decline for the ADHD market across the seven major markets, including the US, illustrates a negative compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, falling from $11.9bn in 2022 to $10.9bn in 2032. A primary factor for this decline is the impact of patent expiries and the expected launch of generics in major markets such as the US and Germany. The expiry of patents for ten branded ADHD products is set to significantly impact the market. Despite the introduction of four new ADHD treatments in the US by 2026, market growth is impeded by the perception that these new products offer limited additional benefits over existing treatments. As a result, generics are perceived as a more attractive option for consumers and payers. Furthermore, the market faces challenges from API shortages affecting generic drug production, although these issues are anticipated to resolve by 2027.
Key Takeawaysa
- The ADHD market across 7 major markets is expected to decline at a -0.9% CAGR from $11.9bn in 2022 to $10.9bn in 2032.
- The US market, accounting for 90% of the ADHD market in 2022, is set to see 10 branded products lose patent protection.
- The largest branded ADHD product, Vyvanse, faced patent expiry in 2023 with limited generic uptake due to API shortages.
- Four late-stage pipeline agents are anticipated to launch in the US by 2026, contributing $395m in sales by 2032.
- Growing awareness of adult ADHD is expected to increase treated cases from 10.7 million in 2022 to 11.1 million by 2032.
Analysis
The diminishing ADHD market, driven by patent expiries and the rise of generics, will have substantial implications for major pharmaceutical companies and investors. The loss of exclusivity for ten branded products, notably Vyvanse, combined with the perceived limited benefits of new treatments, shifts market dynamics in favor of generics. This shift could lead to reduced revenues for innovator companies but lower costs for consumers and healthcare systems. Despite API shortages temporarily affecting generic production, market stabilization is expected post-2027. In the long term, increased awareness of adult ADHD may provide some mitigation for the decline by expanding the patient pool.
Did You Know?
- Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): This is a financial metric that describes the rate of return required for an investment to grow from its initial value to its final value, assuming that the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In this context, a negative CAGR of -0.9% indicates a decrease in market value from 2022 to 2032.
- Patent Expiry: This refers to the expiration of exclusive rights granted to an inventor or their assignee for a set period, typically 20 years from the filing date. Once a patent expires, other companies can produce generic versions of the patented product, often leading to a decrease in the original product's market share and revenue.
- API Shortages: Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) are the crucial components in drugs that produce the intended health effects. Shortages can delay the production of generic drugs, affecting market availability and pricing. This issue is mentioned as a temporary challenge that is expected to resolve by 2027.