AfD Both Lost and Won as 21.6% Supporters Will Push Far-Right Ideologies Into Everyday Life

Germany’s 2025 Election: CDU/CSU Secures Victory, but AfD Emerges as the Most Voted Single Party

A Political Landscape in Flux

Germany’s 2025 federal election has yielded results that reflect both continuity and disruption. The center-right CDU/CSU coalition has emerged as the overall winner, securing the most seats and positioning itself to lead the next government. However, a significant development is the Alternative für Deutschland securing the highest vote share among single parties. With 21.6% of the votes, the AfD has experienced a dramatic surge of 11 percentage points compared to the 2021 election, signaling a deep shift in the German electorate’s preferences.

While the CDU/CSU coalition maintains a dominant position with 31.6% of the vote, the rise of the AfD underscores a growing divide within Germany’s political and social framework. The election results indicate that traditional party allegiances are weakening, while frustration over economic instability, immigration policy, and energy challenges fuels support for the far-right. The ramifications extend beyond governance, influencing investor confidence, business stability, and Germany’s long-term economic trajectory.

The Key Issue: AfD’s Influence Extends Beyond Politics

One of the most pressing concerns following this election is the long-term societal impact of the AfD’s rising influence. With one in five German voters now backing the party, the ideological shift will not be confined to parliament but will spill over into everyday life. The normalization of nationalist and exclusionary rhetoric could reshape hiring practices, workplace environments, and social interactions, embedding far-right ideologies into personal and professional spaces.

Even as the CDU/CSU coalition assumes control, the AfD’s electoral success suggests a significant segment of the population will continue pushing for stricter immigration policies, economic nationalism, and social conservatism. This shift poses long-term risks, particularly for businesses reliant on international talent, as well as foreign investors assessing Germany’s market stability.

Election Breakdown: Key Numbers and Trends

According to the latest results with 91 out of 299 constituencies declared:

Key results:

CDU/CSU Coalition: 31.6% (up 4.8 percentage points from 2021)
AfD: 21.6% (up 11 percentage points from 2021)
SPD: 15.3% (down 9.3 percentage points from 2021)
Greens: 10.1% (down 2.6 percentage points from 2021)
Left: 7.2% (up 3.3 percentage points from 2021)
BSW: 4.5% (new party gain of 4.5 percentage points)
FDP: 4.0% (down 6.6 percentage points from 2021)

The results highlight a continued erosion of centrist stability. While the CDU/CSU remains the dominant force, its influence is tempered by AfD’s rising populist momentum. The SPD’s struggles further reinforce the broader European trend of center-left parties losing ground to more radical alternatives.

Investor and Market Implications: Uncertainty Ahead

The election’s outcome introduces a period of heightened political uncertainty, with significant economic and investment implications.

1. Coalition Negotiations Could Delay Policy Decisions

With no single party commanding an outright majority, coalition talks are expected to be prolonged and contentious. The CDU/CSU will likely seek alliances with the Greens or the SPD to form a stable government. However, diverging policy priorities—especially on economic and immigration issues—could stall decision-making at a time when Germany faces slowing GDP growth and industrial stagnation. For investors, this political deadlock may translate into delays in fiscal policy reforms, energy transition strategies, and infrastructure investments.

2. The AfD’s Rise: A Challenge to Germany’s Business Climate

The AfD’s strong electoral performance introduces an element of unpredictability into Germany’s business environment. The party’s stance on economic nationalism, strict immigration policies, and skepticism toward the European Union raises concerns among multinational corporations and foreign investors. If the party’s influence pressures mainstream coalitions to adopt stricter border policies and economic protectionism, industries reliant on skilled migration and international trade could face disruptions.

Beyond the political arena, the election results indicate deeper societal shifts. With one in five voters supporting the AfD, the normalization of nationalist and protectionist rhetoric may impact workplace dynamics and hiring practices. A potential chilling effect on diversity and inclusion policies in corporate environments could emerge, affecting Germany’s attractiveness as a destination for global talent.

Germany’s manufacturing sector, already contending with labor shortages, faces further complications if restrictive immigration policies gain traction. The technology and finance sectors, which rely on highly skilled international professionals, may also experience talent drain risks if political sentiment turns against foreign workers.

4. Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment

Germany’s stock market and bond yields will likely reflect increased volatility as coalition negotiations unfold. Sectors sensitive to government policy—such as energy, automotive, and finance—may see fluctuations as investors gauge the likelihood of regulatory shifts. The AfD’s opposition to EU-driven economic policies could also generate uncertainty around Germany’s role in European fiscal coordination, impacting the euro’s stability and broader investor confidence in the region.

A Defining Moment for German Politics and Business

Germany’s 2025 election results mark a pivotal juncture in the nation’s political and economic landscape. While the CDU/CSU coalition secures leadership, the unprecedented surge of the AfD challenges the status quo, compelling traditional parties to reconsider their strategies.

For businesses and investors, the road ahead is marked by uncertainty. The formation of a stable governing coalition will be critical in determining policy direction, economic stability, and market confidence. Meanwhile, the AfD’s growing influence will shape Germany’s social fabric, with potential ramifications for business operations, labor markets, and investment decisions.

Germany’s next steps will define its ability to maintain economic resilience in the face of political fragmentation. Investors and businesses should closely monitor coalition negotiations and policy shifts to assess risks and opportunities in Europe’s largest economy.