Why AfD Must Fail: A Unique Deep Dive into Its Own Flaws

Why AfD Must Fail: A Unique Deep Dive into Germany’s Political Shift

Germany’s 2025 Election: The Rise and the Trap of AfD

Germany’s 2025 federal election delivered a political earthquake. The center-right CDU/CSU coalition secured the highest vote share at 31.6%, ensuring its lead in forming the next government. But the real headline? The far-right Alternative für Deutschland achieved a staggering 21.6% of the vote, surging 11 percentage points compared to 2021. This seismic shift reflects deep voter dissatisfaction with economic stagnation, immigration, and energy policy failures. However, the AfD’s rise, rather than signaling a viable future for Germany, is the symptom of a broken system—and its inevitable failure is already built into its DNA.

The AfD Mirage: Popularity Without Power

Despite its electoral gains, AfD remains politically isolated. Germany’s post-war political structure, designed to prevent radical extremism, ensures that AfD cannot govern alone. Mainstream parties refuse to form coalitions with it, rendering its power symbolic rather than actionable. This is not just political ostracization—it is a structural roadblock. Without coalition partners, AfD is locked out of government decision-making, leaving it as a protest vehicle rather than a governing force.

But the deeper issue is not just political exclusion. AfD’s internal contradictions make it incapable of real governance. It thrives on opposition rhetoric, not actionable policies. Its economic and immigration proposals fall apart under scrutiny. It can’t govern because it never intended to.

A Policy Vacuum: AfD’s Hollow Agenda

1. Immigration: Big Promises, No Execution Plan

AfD’s hardline anti-immigration stance has been its core appeal. It promises mass deportations and border control crackdowns. But here’s the catch: Germany’s borders are not like the US. There are no deserts, no physical barriers—just towns seamlessly blending into one another. Enforcing border control at this scale would require a massive increase in police and military presence, an expense AfD refuses to detail.

Even when pressed in debates, AfD leaders—including Alice Weidel—have failed to provide an implementation strategy beyond vague nationalist rhetoric. The question remains: How do you police thousands of kilometers of open borders in a country that relies on free movement for trade and labor?

2. Economic Policy: A Disaster in the Making

Germany’s economic backbone is its export-driven manufacturing sector, deeply integrated into the EU. AfD’s proposed policies—exiting the EU, cutting environmental regulations, and massive tax cuts for the wealthy—would wreak havoc on German industry.

• Leaving the EU would cripple Germany’s export economy. The German auto industry, pharmaceuticals, and machinery sectors thrive on free trade within the European Union. An EU exit would slap tariffs on German products, leading to mass layoffs and a GDP collapse.
• Energy policy: Ideological, not practical. AfD’s energy strategy is laughably inconsistent. It calls for shutting down renewable energy expansion while also rejecting expensive fossil fuel imports. The result? A self-inflicted energy crisis.
• Tax cuts for the rich, disguised as populism. AfD’s tax policies favor the top 20% of earners, while slashing social benefits for lower-income workers. This “trickle-down” fantasy does not align with the economic anxieties of AfD’s working-class voter base.

AfD claims to champion German workers but, in reality, its policies cater to the elite old-money class, while offering no relief to the middle and lower classes struggling with inflation and wage stagnation.

3. Foreign Policy: Russia’s Trojan Horse?

AfD’s foreign policy is a gift to the Kremlin. Its opposition to supporting Ukraine and its calls to restore energy ties with Russia directly undermine Germany’s long-term security interests.

• Putin’s expansionist goals are clear. Even AfD’s leaders privately acknowledge Russia’s territorial ambitions go far beyond eastern Ukraine. Yet, they downplay the threat for political gain.
• Aligning with Russia fractures the EU and NATO. AfD’s vision of a Germany cozying up to Russia would leave Poland, the Baltics, and even France deeply alarmed. A weakened Germany would push Europe’s power balance toward Paris and Warsaw, isolating Berlin in global diplomacy.
• Geopolitical instability hurts German business. Germany thrives on stability. AfD’s erratic foreign policy would make it a high-risk investment environment, driving away global capital.

Why AfD’s Rise Is Its Own Downfall

AfD is riding a wave of anti-establishment frustration, but that frustration is inherently unstable. The party thrives on opposition, not governance. Its voter base expects radical change, yet its political isolation means it can deliver none. This paradox—rising popularity but zero real power—sets AfD up for an internal collapse.

1. Coalition Walls: The Establishment’s Firewall Holds

AfD cannot govern alone, and no mainstream party will touch it. Even CDU’s shift rightward has limits. Friedrich Merz, CDU leader, knows that flirting with AfD is politically suicidal. This forces AfD into a permanent opposition role—a protest party with no legislative leverage.

2. Internal Schisms: The Far-Right Purity Test

AfD’s identity crisis is another fatal flaw. Its moderate faction wants to enter government, but its radical wing—embodied by Björn Höcke—refuses to compromise. Höcke, an open admirer of Nazi-era ideology, is a major liability. Even Weidel struggles to control him. AfD’s internal warfare will escalate as governing ambitions clash with ideological purity.

3. Economic Backlash: When Voters Realize the Trap

AfD’s voter base is driven by economic anxiety. But its policies—anti-EU, anti-trade, pro-tax cuts for the wealthy—are fundamentally anti-worker. As economic conditions worsen under CDU’s rule, AfD will be forced to either deliver real solutions or face backlash for failing to enact change. The moment its working-class supporters realize they’ve been conned, AfD’s house of cards collapses.

The Final Verdict: AfD’s Future Is a Dead End

AfD has grown because of frustration, not because of competence. It is a reactionary force, not a governing entity. Its success in 2025 signals a political shift, but its structural weaknesses ensure it cannot hold power.

• It lacks coalition partners.
• It lacks policy coherence.
• It lacks a governing strategy.
• Its economic vision is a self-inflicted wound.
• Its foreign policy is geopolitical suicide.

For Germany’s investors, businesses, and geopolitical stability, the message is clear: AfD is a temporary disruption, not a permanent force. The real question is not whether AfD will govern, but how long before it collapses under its own contradictions.