As Assad’s Regime Crumbles, Israel Seizes High Ground in Syria: A New Middle East Order Emerges

In a dramatic turn of events, the recent overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has ignited widespread reactions both within the country and across the international community. With the former al-Qaeda affiliate group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) reportedly taking control, Syria’s long-standing political landscape is in flux. As Syrians celebrate a possible end to decades of repression, regional powers—including Israel—are moving swiftly to secure their interests amid the resulting power vacuum. The fall of the Assad regime, once closely allied with Iran and Hezbollah, has led to shifting alliances, renewed military actions, and intensified geopolitical maneuvering. This evolving scenario, centered on strategic areas like the Golan Heights, has the potential to reshape Middle Eastern power dynamics, energy markets, and global security policies.

Key Developments

Following the collapse of the Assad regime on Sunday, Israeli forces advanced into Syrian territory, asserting control over strategic positions that had previously maintained a delicate balance under the 1974 armistice agreement. Formerly a quiet front, the Golan Heights region is now the focal point of intense interest. Israeli troops seized key high ground, including Jabal al-Shaykh, the highest point in the Golan Heights, citing the sudden power vacuum and the presence of HTS militants as justification for their actions.

Israeli officials describe the occupation of these territories as a “temporary defensive measure,” attributing their incursion to the breakdown of long-established buffer zones after Assad’s fall. Simultaneously, Israeli aircraft have launched multiple strikes against suspected chemical weapons facilities, as well as areas believed to house strategic missile and rocket stockpiles throughout Syria. These developments mark a new phase in the Syrian conflict, where territorial control and strategic resources have become critical prizes for regional actors.

Israeli Actions & Justification

Israel’s leadership argues that the establishment of a “security area” well beyond the old demilitarized buffer zone is essential for preventing hostile forces from gaining a foothold near its borders. The Israeli military has taken proactive measures—reinforcing border defenses, digging trenches, and neutralizing air defense systems and missile sites that could threaten Israeli territory.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly characterized these actions as “temporary defensive positions” necessary to safeguard Israeli citizens. Defense Minister Israel Katz further insists that this zone must remain free of “heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructure.” From Israel’s perspective, the collapse of the 1974 armistice created a dangerous environment, necessitating rapid intervention to maintain stability and deter emerging threats linked to Syria’s turbulent power transition.

International Response

Global reactions to Israel’s military moves have been mixed. Egypt has strongly condemned the Israeli actions, denouncing them as an occupation that violates the 1974 armistice agreement, and calling for urgent United Nations Security Council intervention. Russia, maintaining naval and air bases in Syria, is seeking direct contact with the new rulers in Damascus to protect its own interests and reassert its influence. Meanwhile, the United States has conducted strikes against ISIS targets, while Turkey-backed factions have intensified their engagements with Kurdish forces in Syria’s north.

On a broader scale, the fall of Assad’s regime and Israel’s subsequent territorial moves are testing the geopolitical fault lines in the Middle East. Countries are recalibrating their diplomatic strategies, with some wary of Israel’s growing influence, while others weigh the potential benefits of an empowered Israel in countering Iranian and extremist elements.

Historical Context

The Golan Heights have long been a point of contention between Israel and Syria since the 1967 Six-Day War. Israel annexed the territory in 1981, a move not internationally recognized, yet direct clashes between the two neighbors have been rare since the early 1980s. Under Assad, Syria maintained a hostile but relatively stable standoff, partnering with Iran and Hezbollah to deter Israeli aggression.

With Assad’s downfall, the longstanding equilibrium has evaporated. Israel now seeks to rewrite the rules, using the disintegration of centralized authority in Damascus to ensure its own security landscape favors a deterrence model that mitigates threats previously orchestrated through Iranian and Hezbollah networks.

Military Operations

Since the regime’s collapse, Israel has ramped up its military campaign deep inside Syrian territory. Multiple airstrikes have targeted strategic locations, including security complexes and air bases around Damascus, as well as sites in the southern cities of Dara’a and Suweidah. Suspected chemical weapons facilities have also been hit, reflecting Israel’s long-standing policy against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in hostile neighboring states.

These operations underscore Israel’s intent to neutralize potential security risks before rival factions entrench themselves. By preemptively disabling advanced weaponry and air defense systems, Israel aims to maintain freedom of action and ensure that no formidable military presence can quickly reemerge in the chaotic aftermath of Assad’s removal.

Responses to Assad’s Collapse

The end of the Assad regime has prompted an outpouring of emotion across Syria and among the Syrian diaspora. Many Syrians, having endured decades of political repression, are celebrating what they perceive as a long-awaited chance for greater freedom and inclusive governance. Public celebrations have erupted in Damascus and abroad, reflecting hopes for a more democratic and just system to replace the old order.

Nonetheless, optimism is tempered by anxiety. With central authority in disarray, there are legitimate fears that extremist groups may exploit the resulting instability. The fall of the Assad regime, while ending one era of authoritarianism, risks ushering in an extended period of uncertainty, struggle, and humanitarian concern.

Netanyahu’s Greatest Relief

At home, Prime Minister Netanyahu faces intense political headwinds, including a corruption trial where he stands accused of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. His testimony, which began on December 2, 2024, has drawn national attention and may affect his political capital.

Simultaneously, Netanyahu’s administration has become embroiled in a scandal involving leaks of classified information. In this fraught domestic environment, the timing of Israel’s assertive moves in Syria raises questions. Critics suggest these military initiatives may serve not only defensive purposes but also as a potential distraction from the prime minister’s legal troubles—rallying nationalist sentiment and bolstering his standing by showcasing robust leadership and decisive military action.

Preparing for Israel’s Comeback as a Middle East Leader

Should Israel’s territorial expansion and robust military posture persist, the implications for the Middle East and beyond would be profound. The region’s geopolitical landscape may undergo significant realignments. Arab states who joined the Abraham Accords could reassess their ties under pressure from domestic constituents opposed to Israeli territorial gains. Conversely, some Sunni Arab states might tacitly accept Israel’s moves if they perceive a shared interest in countering Iranian influence or extremist networks.

This seismic shift would also register on global energy markets. With Israel potentially accessing energy reserves in the Levant Basin, Europe’s reliance on Russian gas could decline, altering pricing and supply dynamics. However, any oil and gas development would likely trigger short-term volatility, especially if regional actors interpret Israel’s energy ambitions as a competitive threat.

The defense and cybersecurity sectors would experience pronounced growth. Israel’s established defense industries—renowned for advanced missile defenses, UAV technologies, and cybersecurity solutions—could see a surge in demand. Investors might gravitate toward Israeli defense stocks like Elbit Systems and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, anticipating sustained profitability amid heightened regional tensions.

Domestically, the expansion could strain Israel’s political fabric. Managing new territories and populations could stir internal debate and civil unrest. Palestinians would likely find themselves further marginalized, intensifying calls for international intervention. The United Nations, European Union, and other institutions might consider sanctions or diplomatic pressure, although enforcement would be complicated by competing U.S. and Russian interests.

Non-state actors, emboldened by power vacuums and shifting alliances, could gain traction, mirroring the rise of ISIS and other extremist groups in previous Syrian crises. The result: a fragile equilibrium, where stakeholders hedge their bets, diversify investment portfolios, and pivot supply chains to regions less prone to instability.

Ultimately, Israel’s ascent as a regional power, bolstered by territorial acquisitions, energy ventures, and robust defense capabilities, would recast Middle Eastern geopolitics. The trajectory remains fraught with uncertainty, promising both economic opportunities and heightened risks. For policymakers, investors, and regional players, the challenge will be to navigate this new order with strategic foresight, mitigating conflicts while seizing emerging opportunities in a reshaped Middle Eastern landscape.