Bond Traders React to Surprising US Manufacturing Data
By
Alejandro Ríos Soto
1 min read
⚠️ Heads up: this article is from our "experimental era" — a beautiful mess of enthusiasm ✨, caffeine ☕, and user-submitted chaos 🤹. We kept it because it’s part of our journey 🛤️ (and hey, everyone has awkward teenage years 😅).
Bond traders reacted swiftly to the surprising news that US manufacturing activity showed expansion for the first time since 2022. This caused a drop in the amount of Fed easing priced into swap contracts for this year, with odds of a first move in June dipping below 50%. The ISM manufacturing data for March exceeded all estimates, leading to a bond-market selloff and significant increases in Treasury yields. The market's response reflects shifting expectations for Fed policy, indicating potential turning points in the economy.