Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte Arrested in Manila After ICC Warrant Execution

Rodrigo Duterte’s Arrest: A Political Power Play in the Philippines and Its Global Implications

A Former President in Custody

The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte upon his return to Manila has sent shockwaves through the political and international landscape. Duterte, known for his controversial and brutal war on drugs during his presidency from 2016 to 2022, was detained by Philippine authorities following an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. This development, while dramatic, is not simply a case of legal accountability—it is deeply intertwined with the shifting political dynamics in the country, U.S. foreign policy interests, and the balance of power in Southeast Asia.

The Facts: What Led to Duterte’s Arrest?

On March 11, 2025, Duterte was arrested at Manila International Airport upon arrival from Hong Kong.
The ICC had previously issued a Red Notice against Duterte, alleging crimes against humanity for his role in the anti-drug campaign, which resulted in thousands of extrajudicial killings.
The Philippine government, despite having withdrawn from the ICC in 2019, allowed domestic law enforcement to execute the warrant, a move seen as politically motivated.
Reports indicate that 7,000 police officers were deployed for his capture, highlighting the scale and intensity of the operation.

Political Context: Duterte vs. Marcos Jr.

This arrest is not just about justice—it is a strategic maneuver in an ongoing power struggle between two of the most influential political families in the Philippines: the Dutertes and the Marcoses.

In 2022, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. was elected president with the support of the Duterte camp. Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte, was elected as vice president under a political alliance meant to secure power for both families.
However, tensions escalated when Marcos Jr. reneged on agreements, sidelining Sara Duterte from key cabinet positions and removing allies of Duterte from government institutions.
Marcos Jr.'s administration, backed by the United States, has shifted away from Duterte’s China-friendly stance, moving closer to Western allies and allowing an ICC investigation to proceed despite prior resistance.

Geopolitical and Investment Implications

The arrest of Duterte is not just a domestic affair—it has broader economic and geopolitical consequences. Investors and businesses operating in the Philippines must consider the following factors:

1. Political Stability and Market Reaction

The Duterte-Marcos feud creates an unstable political environment, which may lead to policy unpredictability.
The Philippine peso weakened slightly following the arrest, as investors anticipated possible domestic unrest.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows could be affected, especially from Chinese businesses that benefited under Duterte’s administration.

2. U.S. and China’s Strategic Influence

Marcos Jr.'s alignment with Washington has been evident in his policies, from renewed U.S. military access in the Philippines to defense cooperation agreements.
Duterte’s arrest may signal a further shift away from China, increasing U.S. economic and security influence in the region.
Beijing has yet to officially respond, but a more U.S.-aligned Philippines could have implications for South China Sea disputes and trade relations.

3. Philippine Domestic Policy and Business Climate

Investors should monitor policy shifts in key sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and defense.
Anti-corruption and legal reform measures under Marcos Jr. may either enhance transparency or be used selectively for political gains.
Local businesses with ties to the Duterte camp could face regulatory scrutiny, impacting sectors such as construction, mining, and media.

What’s Next? Potential Scenarios

The Duterte arrest presents multiple possible outcomes:

Legal Maneuvering & Political Negotiation: Duterte may be detained for a short period before a negotiated release, particularly if unrest escalates.
Long-Term Detention & Trial: If Marcos Jr. aims to permanently sideline the Duterte family, legal proceedings could drag on, setting a precedent for political purges.
Public Backlash & Political Instability: Duterte’s still-strong support base could mobilize protests, potentially leading to clashes and a reevaluation of the administration’s strategy.

An Uncertain Future for the Philippines

The arrest of Rodrigo Duterte is a high-stakes political event with broad geopolitical and economic ramifications. While it underscores the growing divide between the Marcos administration and the former leader’s camp, it also marks a pivotal moment in U.S.-Philippine relations and the broader power struggle in Southeast Asia.

For businesses and investors, the key takeaway is clear: political risk in the Philippines is rising. While opportunities remain in the country’s growing economy, companies must be prepared for policy shifts, regulatory changes, and potential instability in the coming months.