Germany Approves €336 Million Arms Deal with Turkey: Boosting Defense Industry Amid Rising Mediterranean Tensions

Germany Approves €336 Million Arms Exports to Turkey, Boosting Defense Industry and Sparking Regional Concerns

Germany has recently approved large-scale arms exports to Turkey, marking a significant policy shift after years of restrictive measures. Valued at €336 million, the deal includes high-value defense equipment such as air defense missiles, torpedoes, and modernization packages for submarines. This decision is expected to boost Germany's defense industry while also raising concerns about the increasing militarization of the Mediterranean region.

A Major Policy Shift in German Arms Exports

Germany's approval of arms exports to Turkey is notable because it reflects a departure from the strict limitations placed on such deals in recent years. The new export deal includes:

• 100 air defense missiles for naval ships, valued at approximately €100 million.
• 28 SeaHake torpedoes manufactured by ThyssenKrupp Marine, worth €156 million.
• Modernization packages for Turkish U209 submarines (€79 million).
• Engine parts for Turkish corvettes and frigates (€1.9 million).

In contrast, during 2023, Germany only approved 17 minor military projects for Turkey, totaling just €1.22 million. The first quarter of 2024 saw approvals for €23 million, but this new export package far exceeds these previous amounts. This policy shift underlines Germany’s changing approach toward its relationship with Turkey, driven by a mix of geopolitical and strategic factors.

Historical Context and Previous Restrictions

Germany had previously imposed stringent restrictions on arms exports to Turkey due to a variety of concerns. These included Turkey’s military interventions in Syria, its treatment of Kurdish groups, and the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system, which led to Turkey's exclusion from the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program. Under President Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey's autocratic governance and controversial foreign policy decisions also contributed to Germany's cautious approach.

However, with the latest approval, it appears that Germany is recalibrating its foreign policy. This move could be influenced by Turkey's strategic role within NATO, its position in managing migration flows, and Germany’s need to secure cooperation on broader defense and geopolitical issues, particularly amid ongoing tensions with Russia.

Key Stakeholders and Strategic Interests

Germany and the European Union

For Germany, this arms export approval represents a pragmatic shift in policy. The decision likely stems from geopolitical necessities, rather than any relaxation of its concerns about Turkey's domestic or foreign policies. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration has to balance these complexities, especially with Turkey playing a critical role in managing illegal migration into Europe. Moreover, this deal will provide a substantial economic boost to Germany's defense industry, especially companies like ThyssenKrupp Marine.

Turkey and President Erdoğan

For Turkey, this deal is a significant win for President Erdoğan. Domestically, it enhances the perception of Turkey’s growing military strength, while internationally, it reinforces Turkey’s strategic importance as a NATO member. The SeaHake torpedoes and U209 submarine upgrades will enhance Turkey’s naval capabilities, especially in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions, which are key areas of geopolitical importance due to ongoing disputes with Greece and Cyprus.

The United States

The U.S. has its own arms deals with Turkey in the pipeline, including the approval of F-16 jets. Germany’s renewed engagement in defense cooperation with Turkey is likely seen as complementary to U.S. efforts to keep Turkey aligned with NATO and reduce its reliance on Russian military systems. The combined European and American arms deals may help strengthen Turkey’s ties with the West, limiting its strategic pivot toward Russia.

NATO and Regional Security

NATO’s southeastern flank, particularly the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, remains a critical area for European security. Germany’s decision to greenlight these arms exports emphasizes Turkey’s role in securing this region. However, it also introduces complexities, as Turkey’s regional ambitions—especially regarding Syria and its disputes with Greece—could strain intra-NATO relations. Enhanced Turkish naval capabilities may lead to increased assertiveness in the Mediterranean, heightening tensions over unresolved energy disputes.

Boost to Defense Industry and Regional Militarization

Defense Industry Benefits

Germany’s defense sector stands to gain significantly from the arms deal, especially naval defense contractors like ThyssenKrupp Marine. The demand for advanced torpedoes, missile systems, and naval upgrades is expected to grow, driven by rising regional tensions. The Mediterranean, in particular, has seen increasing competition for naval superiority among regional powers like Turkey, Greece, and Israel. This trend bodes well for defense companies and investors in European defense stocks.

Energy Security and Maritime Disputes

Turkey’s expanding naval capabilities, bolstered by this arms deal, could impact energy security in the Eastern Mediterranean. The region has long been a hotspot for disputes over gas reserves and maritime boundaries, particularly between Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus. Enhanced military assets may give Turkey greater leverage in future negotiations over energy exploration and resource extraction, potentially reshaping regional energy dynamics and European energy security.

Future Trends: Risks and Strategic Predictions

Increased Militarization of the Mediterranean

The German arms deal is part of a broader trend of militarization in the Mediterranean, where territorial and energy-related disputes continue to simmer. As Turkey strengthens its military, neighboring countries may feel pressured to enhance their own defense capabilities, leading to a potential arms race in the region.

Migration and Security Cooperation

Germany’s willingness to approve arms exports may also reflect its broader strategic interest in securing Turkey’s cooperation on migration management. With millions of refugees and migrants passing through Turkey en route to Europe, Ankara holds significant leverage. In exchange for defense deals, Germany is likely hoping for stronger collaboration on border management and faster deportations of illegal migrants.

Long-Term Risks

While the arms deal strengthens NATO’s southeastern defenses, it also introduces risks. Turkey’s growing military capabilities could embolden it to pursue more aggressive policies in the region, potentially destabilizing NATO’s unity. Moreover, Turkey’s ongoing acquisition of non-NATO systems, such as the Russian S-400 missile system, continues to pose challenges for Western policymakers.

Conclusion

Germany’s approval of €336 million in arms exports to Turkey marks a strategic shift in both foreign policy and defense industry priorities. For Turkey, this deal strengthens its military capabilities and affirms its importance within NATO. However, it also raises concerns about the long-term implications of an increasingly militarized Mediterranean region. As Germany seeks to balance defense cooperation with broader geopolitical goals, the effects of this decision will ripple across defense markets, regional security, and European energy interests.