OPEC Plus Begins Gradual Oil Output Increase as Part of 18-Month Plan to Reverse Cuts
As OPEC+ Gently Reopens the Spigots, a Battle for Market Share and Stability Begins
A Calculated Return to the Oil Stage, But the Theater Is Far From Settled
In the cool desert twilight of early spring, as oil ministers from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi prepare for a pivotal meeting later this week, the machinery of global oil diplomacy has already begun to whir. OPEC+—the once-fragmented coalition of oil producers that has evolved into a geopolitical force—is once again delicately shifting its production strategy, embarking on a cautious path to unwind the massive supply cuts that reshaped global energy markets since 2022.
OPEC+ refers to an alliance consisting of the member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus a coalition of other major non-OPEC oil-exporting nations. Together, these countries coordinate oil production policies to influence the global oil market.
This time, however, the stakes are not just about barrels—they are about balance, leverage, and legacy.
A Measured Return: 135,000 Barrels at a Time
For the second straight month, OPEC+ will raise output—this time by 135,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May 2025. It’s a modest increase on paper, but one that signals a broader strategic reversal. After years of slashing production to prop up prices, the group has begun an 18-month effort to gradually unwind 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts—an operation unfolding through September 2026.
This is no floodgate opening. It is, rather, a drip-feed designed to recalibrate a market that has become increasingly fragmented. Notably, eight countries, including heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are leading the charge. The UAE will enjoy the largest target boost—300,000 bpd over the course of the plan.
“It’s not about supply for supply’s sake,” noted one senior analyst from a European commodities fund. “It’s about showing relevance in a market where non-OPEC barrels are rising and discipline is increasingly hard to enforce.”
Demand is There—for Now
Brent crude prices have hovered around $72 per barrel in recent weeks, reflecting a market that is neither overheated nor starved. A Reuters poll of 49 economists projects an average Brent price of $72.94 for 2025, underscoring a consensus: current demand can absorb the gradual increases without pushing prices into a free fall.
Recent Price Trend for Brent Crude Oil
| Date | Price (USD/Barrel) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | ~$73.88 | Latest price |
| Mar 31, 2025 | $74.74 | Closing price |
| Mar 24, 2025 | $73.00 | Closing price |
| Feb 2025 Avg | $75.15 | Monthly average |
| 2024 Avg | $80.52 | Annual average |
| 2023 Avg | $82.49 | Annual average |
Seasonal demand growth, coupled with stable industrial consumption, has fortified market fundamentals. "There’s a certain harmony in the numbers right now," said one energy economist. "But it’s a harmony that’s very sensitive to changes in tempo—be that geopolitics, fiscal policy, or even a surprise heatwave.”
The Real Battle: Non-OPEC Producers
While OPEC+ carefully engineers its phased reentry into the supply landscape, the real challenge may lie elsewhere.
Comparison of oil production growth between OPEC+ and key non-OPEC producers like the US, Brazil, and Guyana.
| Entity | Metric | Value (Approx. Million bpd) | Period | Trend/Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC+ | Crude Oil Production | 35.7 (Crude only) | 2024 Average | Production fell in 2023 due to cuts, expected slight increase in 2024/2025, then phase out cuts through Sep 2026. Market share declining from 53% (2016) to ~46% (2025/2026). |
| US | Crude Oil Production | 13.2 - 13.4 | 2024 Avg / Peak | Record high production in 2023 (12.9m bpd) and 2024 (avg 13.2m, peak 13.4m). Forecast to average 13.5m bpd in 2025. Major driver of non-OPEC+ growth. |
| Brazil | Crude Oil Production | ~3.36 | 2024 Average | Slight decrease (-1% / -1.29%) in 2024 from record 2023 levels (~3.4m bpd) due to maintenance/strikes. Still a key non-OPEC+ growth contributor long-term. |
| Guyana | Crude Oil Production | ~0.62 | 2024 Average | Rapid growth from 0.39m bpd in 2023 to average 0.62m bpd in 2024 (67% growth in H1 2024). Forecast to reach ~1.3m bpd by 2027. Fastest growing producer globally. |
Non-OPEC producers—particularly in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina—are gaining ground, unbound by quotas and increasingly efficient. Many OPEC+ members view the controlled production increase not just as a market correction, but as a defensive maneuver to reclaim lost ground.
“OPEC+ is facing a creeping erosion of its market share,” said one North American crude trader. “By slowly boosting supply, they’re trying to box out the competition before it’s too late.”
The tension is palpable. Open the spigots too fast, and prices tumble. Hold back too long, and competitors seize the gap. The group’s internal challenge is even more nuanced: some members have historically overproduced and now must make compensatory cuts to stay aligned with quotas—an issue slated for review at the April 5 ministerial committee meeting.
A Pact of Fragile Discipline
April 4’s meeting will also evaluate how members are adhering to their obligations—and whether further adjustments are needed. While the group has emphasized flexibility, there is little room for error. If supply overtakes demand, price equilibrium could be swiftly disrupted.
A swing producer in the oil market is a supplier, often exemplified by Saudi Arabia, possessing significant spare production capacity. This allows them to quickly adjust their output levels (increasing or decreasing) to influence global oil prices and balance the market in response to supply or demand shifts.
“There’s a limit to how many moving parts you can manage before something breaks,” observed one veteran OPEC-watcher. “And this plan has a lot of moving parts.”
The unwinding strategy relies on surgical precision: honoring past pledges, adjusting for overproduction, and reacting quickly to any signs of imbalance. The group’s credibility is once again under the microscope.
Behind Every Barrel, a Geopolitical Shadow
Overlaying this technical strategy is a fog of geopolitical uncertainty.
Potential U.S. policy shifts—especially in an election year—loom large. A return of protectionist tariffs, renewed sanctions on Iran, or a pivot in energy policy could rapidly change the supply calculus. Simultaneously, instability in producing nations or tensions in shipping lanes could constrain exports just as OPEC+ is ramping up.
One senior market risk consultant warned: “All it takes is one black swan—whether it's political, environmental, or technological—and the supply-demand balance evaporates. This is a fragile peace.”
Investor Implications: A Market Built for the Nimble
For professional energy traders and institutional investors, this moment offers neither clear windfall nor red flag—but something more subtle: an opening for precision and timing.
This phased production increase is likely to usher in a period of “measured volatility”—prices that oscillate within a defined range but can spike or dive on new data or geopolitical developments. For hedge funds and portfolio managers, this environment rewards agility over conviction.
“If you’re long crude, you need a very tight stop-loss. If you’re short, you need nerves of steel,” said one fund manager at a Singapore-based energy desk. “The only thing certain is that nothing is stable for long.”
Beyond the Numbers: The Long Game
Beneath the careful choreography of supply tweaks and diplomatic statements lies a deeper question: can OPEC+ remain the gravitational center of the oil universe?
The alliance has held, but not without strain. Members have differing priorities. The rise of energy nationalism, domestic budget pressures, and competing global interests means consensus is increasingly hard-won.
Yet, by engineering this 18-month strategy, OPEC+ has made a statement: it is not going quietly.
“This isn’t just about oil,” an analyst from a Middle Eastern investment bank noted. “It’s about power, about who writes the rules, and about whose barrels the world will buy when demand peaks again.”
The Road Ahead: More Than Just a Supply Curve
As the world transitions toward cleaner energy and more complex supply chains, oil’s role may be evolving—but it is far from irrelevant. The decisions made by OPEC+ today reverberate through emerging markets, trade balances, inflation indices, and even political outcomes.
If prices stay stable and demand holds, this phase of controlled increases could represent a new model for global commodity management—one where discipline, not dominance, defines leadership.
But the risk of disruption is omnipresent. A sudden demand dip, an unexpected supply surge, or geopolitical shock could turn this carefully plotted roadmap into a detour.
For now, however, the taps are opening—slowly, deliberately, and under watchful eyes.
Key Takeaways for Traders and Analysts:
- OPEC+ to increase output by 135,000 bpd in May, continuing its 18-month unwinding plan.
- Market fundamentals appear solid; Brent crude trades near $72, with forecasts averaging $72.94 for 2025.
- April 5 meeting will assess compliance, overproduction compensation, and potential adjustments.
- Rising non-OPEC production presents a long-term structural challenge to the alliance.
- Investment strategy should prioritize nimbleness, as volatility is likely to be event-driven rather than trend-based.
In this moment, OPEC+ isn’t just managing barrels—it’s managing a narrative. And the next chapter is being written in real time.