Samsung and SK Hynix stocks plunge 31%-39% as memory profit forecasts rise

Samsung Electronics closed Friday at 259,500 won, 30.7% below its June intraday record of 374,500 won. SK Hynix finished at 1.809 million won, 39.4% below its June high of 2.987 million won. Those are downcycle-sized equity drawdowns. The physical memory data have not yet produced a downcycle-sized deterioration.

TrendForce still describes conventional DRAM supply as extremely tight. Its July work forecast third-quarter contract prices rising another 13%-18% quarter on quarter, with low supplier inventories and AI-server demand absorbing capacity. SK Hynix, meanwhile, said in its second-quarter results that it had begun mass shipments of HBM4 and finalized long-term agreements with around 10 customers while receiving additional supply requests.

Valuation makes the selloff easier to interpret. MarketScreener consensus data around September 9 put Samsung at about 5.6 times estimated 2026 earnings and 3.9 times 2027 earnings; SK Hynix was at roughly 5.3 times 2026 and 3.8 times 2027. Those unusually low forward multiples coexist with consensus forecasts for higher earnings next year. Investors are not simply pricing an imminent collapse in reported profit. They are applying a large discount to how long extraordinary memory profitability can last.

The multiple is doing the work before the cycle turns

In a commodity-like industry, that is exactly how an equity can turn before the product cycle. If earnings are temporarily inflated by scarcity, a stock can fall sharply even while near-term profit estimates rise: investors reduce the multiple applied to those earnings because they expect supply growth, customer redesigns or weaker pricing to normalize returns later.

High-bandwidth memory makes the current cycle less spot-driven than past PC and smartphone booms. HBM uses more wafer input than conventional DRAM, has demanding packaging and qualification requirements, and is increasingly sold through longer-term customer arrangements. That absorbs supply and gives leading vendors more revenue visibility than a conventional memory upcycle.

It does not abolish supply response. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are spending because current economics justify more capacity. Process migrations lift bit output; new fabs eventually add wafers; customers can also redesign systems when the memory bill becomes too expensive. TrendForce has reported that accelerator and cloud customers are evaluating lower-HBM configurations for future systems, evidence that scarcity is beginning to ration demand at the architecture level.

NAND offers an earlier warning channel. TrendForce expects its supply-demand balance to loosen before DRAM as new capacity and process gains meet weaker consumer demand. A NAND pricing rollover could cut consolidated estimates even while HBM remains tight, particularly for suppliers with broader commodity exposure.

The stocks have moved ahead of the operating data. The present valuation says investors do not trust today's scarcity profits at a normal multiple, even though consensus earnings and current DRAM pricing still point upward. A memory downturn would require the operating evidence to catch up with the shares: contract prices flattening or falling, inventories rebuilding and HBM renewals weakening. Until then, the Korean memory selloff is best read as a violent shortening of the market's assumed scarcity duration rather than proof that the physical cycle has already broken.

Sources

• Samsung Electronics historical prices: https://www.investing.com/equities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd-historical-data
• SK Hynix historical prices: https://www.investing.com/equities/sk-hynix-inc-historical-data
• SK Hynix Q2 2026 results: https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/
• TrendForce DRAM pricing, July 3, 2026: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260703-13134.html
• TrendForce memory outlook, July 30, 2026: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260730-13158.html
• TrendForce memory supply analysis, August 4, 2026: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20260804-13166.html
• MarketScreener Samsung Electronics financial forecasts: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SAMSUNG-ELECTRONICS-CO-LT-6494906/finances/
• MarketScreener SK Hynix financial forecasts: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SK-HYNIX-INC-212399165/finances/