Serbia's Historic Weapons Deal with France Signals Shift Away from Russian Arms

Serbia is set to sign its largest weapons deal ever with France, signaling a shift in its reliance on Russian arms due to the war in Ukraine. The €3bn order includes a dozen French Rafale fighter jets, as well as a commitment to western weaponry. This move comes after pressure from the EU and the US led to a diversification of Serbia's arms acquisitions. French President Emmanuel Macron's support for Serbia's EU membership and discussions on defense contracts indicate a strategic focus on countries in Russia's sphere of influence. The deal also reflects France's growing role as a major arms exporter.

Key Takeaways

• Serbia is set to finalize a €3bn deal with France for a dozen Rafale fighter jets, signaling a shift towards Western arms procurement and a departure from reliance on Russian aircraft.

• As a response to geopolitical pressures, Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić has permitted shipments of Serbian-made ammunition to Ukraine and is now open to purchasing Western weapons as well as Chinese and Russian systems currently used by the Serbian armed forces.

• French President Emmanuel Macron has used increasingly aggressive rhetoric about the risk to European security if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, and has focused on countries previously in Russia's sphere of influence, such as Moldova.

• The Rafale deal will also include auxiliary systems, training, and maintenance, aiming to ensure uninterrupted air force prowess for Serbia, which has Soviet MiG29s reaching the end of their lifespan in the coming decade.

• The renewed popularity of the Rafale has posed a challenge for its maker, Dassault Aviation, to produce the aircraft at a faster rate given its existing backlog, as France aims to become the second-largest arms exporter after the United States.

Analysis

Serbia's €3bn arms deal with France signifies a shift away from Russian arms, influenced by the conflict in Ukraine and pressure from the EU and US. This move impacts Russia's arms exports and reflects France’s expanding role in the global arms market. The deal indicates a strategic focus on countries in Russia's sphere of influence by France and demonstrates a diversification of arms acquisitions by Serbia. Short-term consequences include challenges for Dassault Aviation to meet the increased demand for Rafale fighter jets. Long-term, the deal may disrupt Russia's influence and bolster France's position as a major arms exporter.

Did You Know?

• Rafale fighter jets: These are advanced multirole fighter aircraft manufactured by Dassault Aviation in France, known for their agility, advanced avionics, and sophisticated weapon systems.

• Geopolitical pressures and the Ukraine conflict: The war in Ukraine has led to a shift in Serbia's arms procurement strategy, moving away from reliance on Russian arms towards diversifying its acquisitions from Western countries, such as France, and considering Chinese and Russian systems as well.

• France's growing role as a major arms exporter: The deal with Serbia reflects France's increasing prominence as a significant arms exporter, as the country aims to solidify its position as the second-largest arms exporter globally, just behind the United States.