Shanghai's Declining Birth Rates: 0.6 Total Fertility Rate

Shanghai's Declining Birth Rates and Implications for the Future

Shanghai's 2023 Population Monitoring Statistical Data Compilation reveals a decline in total and birth rates compared to 2022, while also indicating an increase in the average childbearing age of local female residents. The city's total fertility rate now stands at 0.6, reflecting a decrease of 0.1 from the previous year. Additionally, the average age for first-time mothers in Shanghai's household population has risen to 31.66, with the average childbearing age reaching 32.56. These findings underscore the pervasive global trend of declining birth rates and the looming prospect of a "baby bust" scenario by 2050.

Key Takeaways

• Shanghai witnessed a decline in total and birth rates in 2023 compared to 2022.
• Local female residents' average age for first childbirth and overall childbearing age has increased.
• Over 70% of countries globally are projected to confront a "baby bust" era by 2050, signifying a notable shift in fertility patterns.
• Certain local governments have prioritized measures supporting childbirth and childcare in their 2024 work reports.
• The exorbitant expense associated with raising children has emerged as a pressing concern in China, as highlighted in the "China Fertility Cost Report 2024."

Analysis

The dip in Shanghai's birth rates, outlined in the "2023 Shanghai Population Monitoring Statistical Data Compilation," stems from multifaceted factors such as the substantial cost of child-rearing and delayed marriages. This trend bears implications not just for local authorities, but also for national governments and the global economy. In the near term, it may lead to escalated financial burdens on the dwindling workforce in sustaining the elderly. Consequently, it could precipitate labor scarcities, exerting adverse effects on economic growth and social equilibrium. To mitigate this, policymakers should contemplate strategies addressing affordability and social backing for childbirth and childcare, as underscored in China's "Fertility Cost Report 2024."

Did You Know?

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Shanghai's TFR currently stands at 0.6, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. This indicates that the population is failing to replenish itself.
• Average Childbearing Age: The average childbearing age in Shanghai is 32.56, pointing to a deferment in childbirth, likely influenced by factors such as career emphasis, education, and financial stability.
• "Baby Bust" Era: A period marked by substantial declines in birth rates. The news forecasts that over 70% of countries will have fertility rates below replacement level by 2050, heralding several societal and economic challenges including an aging population, a contracting workforce, and potential repercussions for social security systems.