Trump’s Reluctance to Defend Ukraine Spells Disaster for Taiwan’s Future

Lessons from Ukraine for Taiwan: Trump’s Stance and the Harsh Reality of U.S. Support

How the Ukraine War Exposes Taiwan’s Strategic Vulnerabilities Under a Trump Presidency

The war in Ukraine has provided a real-world stress test for U.S. foreign policy. But for Taiwan, the most critical question is: What happens if a similar crisis unfolds in the Taiwan Strait under a second Trump presidency?

Donald Trump’s "America First" doctrine has already reshaped global alliances. His stance on Ukraine has been clear—no blank checks, no open-ended military commitments, and a reluctance to directly confront Russia. If these principles apply to Taiwan, the implications are stark.

The lessons from Ukraine provide Taiwan with a roadmap for survival. But will Taiwan adapt before it’s too late?

1. Trump’s Reluctance to Engage in Direct Conflict: A Warning for Taiwan

Trump has made it clear that he prioritizes U.S. interests over foreign entanglements. His position on Ukraine reflects this:

He has criticized excessive military aid to Ukraine, calling it a waste of U.S. resources.
He has pushed European allies to take more responsibility, signaling a shift away from direct U.S. intervention.
He has refused to guarantee long-term U.S. protection, implying that Ukraine should negotiate directly with Russia.

How does this apply to Taiwan? Taiwan's defense strategy is built on the assumption that the U.S. will intervene in a conflict with China. But Trump’s reluctance to fully back Ukraine suggests that Taiwan may not get the military support it expects. If Trump was hesitant to commit U.S. forces against Russia—a country far weaker than China—why would he risk direct conflict with Beijing?

Key Lesson: Taiwan must prepare for a future where U.S. military support is uncertain. If Trump returns to office, strategic ambiguity could quickly turn into strategic abandonment.

2. Military Readiness: Taiwan’s Urgent Need for Self-Sufficiency

Ukraine has managed to hold off Russian forces not because of direct U.S. intervention but because of its own military preparedness. Early investments in asymmetric warfare, missile defense, and drone technology allowed Ukraine to resist despite being the underdog.

Taiwan’s reality is far worse:

Its defense budget is just 2% of GDP—far lower than what’s needed for serious deterrence.
Mandatory military service is minimal, with only four months of training compared to Ukraine’s extensive civilian and military readiness.
Unlike Ukraine, which borders NATO allies, Taiwan is an island state—making external support even harder to deliver in a crisis.

If Trump follows through on his isolationist approach, Taiwan cannot count on the U.S. military for protection. It must rapidly enhance its own defense capabilities—or risk being overrun.

Key Lesson: Taiwan must increase defense spending, strengthen asymmetric warfare tactics, and ensure civilian military readiness.

3. Taiwan’s Economic Dependence on the U.S. and TSMC’s Weakening Leverage

Ukraine has multiple strategic economic assets, including rare earth minerals and agricultural exports. These resources give it bargaining power with allies.

Taiwan, on the other hand, has only one major strategic asset: TSMC.

The semiconductor giant has long been considered Taiwan’s "Silicon Shield"—making the island indispensable to global supply chains.
However, under U.S. pressure, TSMC is relocating manufacturing to Arizona and Japan.
As more chip production moves abroad, Taiwan’s leverage weakens, making it less valuable to the U.S. economy.

Trump, who has prioritized bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., is unlikely to make Taiwan’s semiconductor industry a reason for military intervention. If Taiwan loses its economic indispensability, it loses one of its strongest deterrents against abandonment.

Key Lesson: Taiwan must diversify its economy beyond semiconductors and build strategic industries that prevent it from becoming disposable.

4. Trump’s Diplomacy: Will Taiwan Be Forced Into a “Deal” with China?

Trump has repeatedly criticized U.S. involvement in distant conflicts and has indicated he prefers deal-making over military action. His past comments suggest he sees China not as an existential threat, but as a rival to be negotiated with.

Consider his stance on Ukraine:

He has suggested that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to end the war.
He has implied that European nations should bear the burden of defending Ukraine, not the U.S.
He has expressed admiration for authoritarian leaders, including Putin and Xi Jinping.

If Trump pressures Taiwan into a negotiated agreement with Beijing—similar to his stance on Ukraine—the consequences could be severe. China could demand:

A formal rejection of independence in exchange for avoiding conflict.
A “One Country, Two Systems” model, reducing Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Military de-escalation agreements that weaken Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities.

Trump’s unpredictability means Taiwan must prepare for a scenario where the U.S. pushes it toward a diplomatic compromise with China, rather than military protection.

Key Lesson: Taiwan must develop its own diplomatic leverage, rather than relying on unpredictable U.S. leadership.

5. Civilian Preparedness: The Final Line of Defense

One of Ukraine’s greatest strengths has been national unity and civilian resilience. From the first days of the war, ordinary citizens took up arms, mobilized resources, and engaged in guerrilla warfare against Russian forces.

Taiwan, by comparison, is not psychologically prepared for war.

Public belief in U.S. intervention remains dangerously high, creating a false sense of security.
Unlike Ukraine, which had a robust reserve force, Taiwan’s civilian defense capabilities are weak and underdeveloped.
Many Taiwanese people still believe in a diplomatic resolution, ignoring China’s clear military ambitions.

If a conflict breaks out, Taiwan cannot afford to be reactive. It must prepare its civilian population now—through military training, supply stockpiling, and national resilience programs—to ensure it can resist even without immediate U.S. help.

Key Lesson: Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability is not just its military, but its lack of psychological and civilian readiness for war.

Taiwan Must Act Now—Trump’s Stance Makes This Urgent

The next global flashpoint may not be in Ukraine but in the Taiwan Strait. And if Donald Trump returns to power, Taiwan’s future becomes even more uncertain.

The lessons from Ukraine are clear: ✅ U.S. military support is not guaranteed—Taiwan must become self-sufficient. ✅ Trump’s reluctance for war means Taiwan cannot rely on intervention. ✅ Economic diversification is essential—TSMC alone will not save Taiwan. ✅ Diplomatic leverage is needed to prevent forced compromises with China. ✅ Civilian readiness must become a national priority.

Taiwan has limited time to prepare. If it fails to act on these lessons now, it risks being the next Ukraine—but with far worse consequences.