‘Very Beneficial,’ But Far from Peace: Inside Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Riyadh
‘Very Beneficial,’ But Far from Peace: Inside Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Riyadh
As Ukraine and the United States pursue diplomatic overtures in Saudi Arabia, the message from Kyiv is one of cautious optimism. But on the ground, the war rages on — and investors, diplomats, and civilians alike are left navigating a fragile balance between hope and hard reality.
In the Halls of Riyadh, Diplomacy Strives to Outpace Destruction
On the evening of March 23, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared on screens across Ukraine in his now-familiar olive-green attire, delivering a message laced with resolve and restrained optimism. The ongoing talks between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, he declared, were “very beneficial.”
This marked the second round of discussions in the Saudi capital, bringing together military officials, diplomats, and energy strategists from both nations. Though billed as “technical” in nature, these talks have been framed by Kyiv as a crucial step toward a ceasefire in a war now entering its third year.
Zelensky expressed that the Ukrainian delegation is making positive progress in their discussions with the US representatives. He felt the conversations were productive and valuable, and noted that the Ukrainian team is continuing with their diplomatic efforts.
But as the lights dimmed in Riyadh’s conference rooms, missiles lit up the sky elsewhere. Far from the diplomatic overtures, Russian drone and missile attacks continued to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian zones — a stark reminder that words, for now, remain just that.
Behind Closed Doors: What ‘Technical’ Talks Actually Mean
The meetings in Riyadh, confirmed to involve Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, focus on the granular mechanics of de-escalation: energy grid protection, military coordination, and possible conditions for a ceasefire. While Zelensky’s address did not elaborate on outcomes, the choice of location and the composition of the delegations signal an effort to sustain diplomatic momentum in neutral ground.
“The Saudis offer a unique convening power,” said one European diplomat familiar with the talks. “But let’s be clear — these are not breakthrough negotiations. They are groundwork.”
Analysts observing the talks point out that the very use of the term “technical” may serve to temper expectations. “It’s diplomacy with a lowercase ‘d’ right now,” noted one regional expert. “The challenge is translating constructive conversations into strategic shifts on the battlefield.”
A War of Optics: Messaging vs. Missiles
Zelensky’s assertion that “Russia is the only party delaying the conflict” echoes a consistent narrative from Kyiv: that Ukraine, with backing from Western allies, remains ready for peace, while Moscow prolongs aggression.
“No matter what we discuss with our partners,” he added, “we need to put pressure on Putin to issue a real order to stop the attacks.”
Information warfare and cognitive warfare both describe leveraging information to influence an adversary's perceptions, beliefs, and decision-making processes. This often involves techniques from psychological operations to manipulate public opinion and undermine trust in institutions, aiming to achieve strategic advantages.
But many observers caution against reading too much into the optimistic tone. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, Russian forces have not scaled back their operations. In fact, drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure have intensified in some regions, underscoring the fragile nature of any tentative detente.
“The dissonance between the negotiation table and battlefield realities is growing,” one international conflict analyst noted. “Positive PR helps morale and markets, but it doesn’t shield cities from drone fire.”
Between Peace and Peril: Investors Eye the Unfolding Diplomatic Ballet
In financial circles, the Riyadh talks have prompted guarded reactions. Optimists point to the potential for de-escalation, particularly if energy infrastructure — a persistent target of Russian strikes — becomes a focal point of protected status. But others warn that ceasefire talks, even when described as productive, have historically yielded little in terms of sustained calm.
Historical trends of ceasefire agreements and their durations in major global conflicts.
| Metric | Description | Example/Statistic |
|---|---|---|
| Success Rate | The percentage of ceasefire agreements that are not followed by renewed conflict or violence. | One study suggests that ceasefire agreements fail approximately 80% of the time, meaning only 20% succeed from the start. However, failed ceasefires can lead to future successes. |
| Duration Factors | Factors influencing how long a ceasefire agreement lasts. | Demilitarized zones, troop withdrawal, third-party guarantees and monitoring (e.g., peacekeeping), reducing incentives to attack, reducing uncertainty about the adversary's intentions, and mechanisms to prevent accidents. |
| Ceasefire Frequency | How often ceasefires are declared in conflict zones. | From 1989 to 2020, there were 2,202 ceasefires declared globally. |
| Impact on Violence | The effect of ceasefires on reducing violence. | A study in Baltimore, Maryland, found an estimated 52% reduction in gun violence during community-led ceasefire weekends. |
| Influence of Fatalities | Impact of fatalities on ceasefire likelihood. | Increased combatant and civilian fatalities can increase the likelihood of a ceasefire. |
| Economic Impact | The effect of ceasefires on economic recovery. | Ceasefires can have a positive impact on economic recovery, corresponding to an increase of 5.5 percent when the agreement enters into place. |
“The signal is positive, but the risk premium remains high,” said an investment strategist who specializes in conflict-zone markets. “We’ve seen this pattern before — negotiations that hint at progress, but ground conditions don’t shift.”
Indeed, Zelensky’s remarks are being interpreted by some as a calculated attempt to project stability and encourage international confidence. This may be especially true for institutional investors evaluating defense, energy, and reconstruction exposure in the region.
Defense, Energy, and the Fog of Ceasefire
For defense firms, the implications are mixed. A lasting peace would likely slow procurement and military aid flows, but the uncertainty surrounding any ceasefire — especially one described only as “technical” — may sustain current spending levels.
Meanwhile, energy markets remain volatile. Attacks on infrastructure and the possibility of localized truces have led to unpredictable fluctuations in regional prices. A temporary cessation of hostilities around key energy nodes could bring short-term stabilization. However, if ceasefires are repeatedly broken, or if Russia uses them to regroup militarily, volatility will likely surge again.
Fluctuations in European natural gas prices since the start of the Ukraine conflict.
| Time Period/Event | Price/Level | Factors/Impact |
|---|---|---|
| First two weeks after the invasion (Feb 2022) | Increased by around 180% | Initial shock and uncertainty following the invasion. |
| Immediately after invasion (Feb/Mar 2022) | Spiked | Fears of disruptions to energy supplies and increasingly strict sanctions on the Russian energy sector. |
| Early January 2025 | Dutch TTF topped 50 EUR/MWh (+50% year-on-year increase) | Colder weather, reduced renewable energy production, and the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. |
| February 2025 | Around EUR 47/MWh (USD 14.50/MBtu) | Natural gas supplies tightened by the halt of transit of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine. |
| March 2025 (current) | Approximately €44/MWh | Ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine further reduced the chances of Russian gas flows resuming. |
| Expected by end of Q1 2025 | 42.74 EUR/MWh | According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. |
| Since beginning of 2025 | Decreased by 15.64% | According to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. |
“The energy sector is on a geopolitical rollercoaster,” said a commodities analyst. “If a protected corridor for infrastructure emerges, it could be a game-changer. But don’t bet the farm on it yet.”
The Reconstruction Horizon: Real or Remote?
Should a credible, durable ceasefire be achieved, the next phase would pivot quickly toward reconstruction. Ukraine’s devastated infrastructure — from bridges to power grids — would require a vast influx of investment and labor.
“There’s a long tail of opportunity here,” said one infrastructure fund manager. “The rebuilding of Ukraine, when it comes, will rival post-WWII Europe in scale.”
But that scenario hinges on more than handshakes and press releases. It demands verifiable commitments, enforcement mechanisms, and a political roadmap that transcends current hostilities. For now, most firms are watching and waiting.
What Comes Next: Caution Behind the Curtain
The upbeat tone from Riyadh masks a deeper uncertainty. The talks, however positive, are not a peace summit. They are a necessary, but far from sufficient, step toward conflict resolution. Without reciprocal action from Moscow — or a broader international mechanism to enforce agreements — Zelensky’s optimism may remain aspirational.
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy in which a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. This concept, based on deterrence, is less directly applicable to modern conflicts as these rarely involve nuclear-armed states in direct confrontation, although the threat of escalation remains a consideration.
“Until there’s a tangible halt in hostilities, every headline is just a data point, not a turning point,” one analyst remarked.
Still, the diplomatic choreography continues. And for Ukraine, articulating progress — even incremental — may serve not only its geopolitical aims but its economic and psychological resilience.
A Glimmer, Not a Beacon
In the end, Zelensky’s declaration of “very beneficial” talks reflects the dual role of modern wartime diplomacy: a forum for negotiation and a theater for messaging. The Riyadh sessions offer a glimmer of possibility, but not yet a beacon of peace.
For Ukrainians under siege, for investors weighing risk, and for diplomats striving to stitch together a fractured landscape, the hope is simple: that words might soon give way to silence — not from fatigue, but from the long-awaited sound of peace.