US and China Resume Nuclear Arms Talks in Shanghai
The United States and China have resumed nuclear arms talks for the first time in five years, with Chinese representatives assuring U.S. counterparts that they would not use atomic threats over Taiwan. The talks took place in March in Shanghai, involving about half a dozen U.S. delegates and a Chinese delegation of scholars and analysts.
The U.S. side wanted to discuss China's nuclear policies, such as no-first-use and minimal deterrence. However, the Chinese delegation did not provide specifics about their modernization efforts. China's nuclear arsenal, estimated to have 500 operational nuclear warheads, is rapidly growing and is expected to reach 1,000 by 2030.
Key Takeaways
- US and China resumed nuclear arms talks in March, with China assuring it won't use atomic threats over Taiwan.
- China's representatives believe they can prevail in a conventional fight over Taiwan without nuclear weapons.
- The talks involved former officials and academics from both sides, but didn't include government-to-government negotiations.
- China has modernized its nuclear arsenal, now having a "nuclear triad," with weapons on land, air, and sea.
- China maintains its no-first-use and minimal deterrence policies, according to Chinese delegates in the talks.
Analysis
The resumption of US-China nuclear arms talks marks a significant development in global security, despite ongoing economic and geopolitical tensions. China's rapid nuclear modernization, aiming for 1,000 warheads by 2030, raises concerns for affected nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. The US, with its policy of using nuclear weapons if deterrence fails, is also impacted, as seen in its recent nuclear submarine technology deal with Britain and Australia.
The indirect cause of these talks can be traced back to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the resumption of semi-official discussions on broader security and energy issues. Direct causes include China's growing nuclear arsenal and the US's desire to discuss China's nuclear policies.
In the short term, these talks could lead to a better understanding of each other's nuclear postures and potentially reduce the risk of miscalculation. However, in the long term, the lack of government-to-government negotiations and China's focus on nuclear weapons' survivability could signal further escalation. The financial instruments at play, such as military budgets and nuclear modernization programs, will be significantly affected by the outcome of these talks.
Did You Know?
- Nuclear Triad: This term refers to a country's strategic nuclear weapon delivery system that consists of three components: land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), strategic bombers, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Having a nuclear triad provides a secure second-strike capability, ensuring a nation's deterrence and survivability of its nuclear arsenal in case of a first strike. China's recent modernization of its nuclear arsenal has resulted in the establishment of its own nuclear triad.
- No-First-Use (NFU) Policy: This is a declaratory nuclear policy where a country pledges not to use nuclear weapons as the first strike in a conflict, reserving their use only in response to a nuclear attack. China has maintained its NFU policy, meaning it would not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict, even though it is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal.
- Minimal Deterrence: This is a nuclear strategy where a country aims to maintain a small but sufficient nuclear arsenal to deter potential adversaries from attacking. China's minimal deterrence policy is based on the idea that a limited nuclear force can still provide an effective deterrent against nuclear threats. This policy allows China to have a relatively smaller nuclear arsenal compared to other nuclear powers while still maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent.