US Diesel Reaches a Record $5.850 as Refinery and Shipping Premiums Stack Up

By
CTOL News Desk
1 min read

The US average diesel price reached $5.850 a gallon on September 4, the highest reading in AAA’s national series. Brent crude was around $95.55 a barrel, according to CBS News. Diesel’s previous record was about $5.816 in June 2022, when Brent traded around $120–$129. A refined-product price record with cheaper crude points to refining, inventory and delivery premiums rather than a simple oil-price shock.

The direct exposure is operating cost in trucking, agriculture, construction and parcel delivery. A truck travelling 6–7 miles per gallon pays roughly 14–17 cents more per mile for each additional $1 a gallon, or $14,000–$17,000 over 100,000 miles, before a fuel surcharge. The margin question is whether carriers can reset contracts before the diesel premium reaches their income statement.

The shortage is in distillate supply

The International Energy Agency estimated that diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East and Asia were 1.3 million barrels per day lower year on year, about 20% of global seaborne diesel trade. Attacks on Russian refineries and continued disruption to Middle East product exports reduced its estimate of third-quarter refining runs by a further 370,000 b/d, while Atlantic Basin middle-distillate cracks reached records.

The US Energy Information Administration linked tighter conditions to lower Russian exports, conflict around Hormuz and reduced Chinese refinery runs. Its second-quarter analysis put US distillate exports at 1.56 million b/d, 30% above the five-year average. US refiners increased distillate production by 5% and jet-fuel production by 24%, while gasoline production rose only 1%.

Those figures show the US refinery system responding to an international product shortage. Refiners can increase distillate and jet yields, import more barrels or reduce another product, but each choice carries a margin and logistics cost. The diesel crack—the product price above its crude input—pays the refiner to chase distillate while carriers and consumers absorb the higher delivered cost.

Inventories remove the timing buffer

EIA data for the week ending August 28 put US distillate inventories about 14% below their five-year average, even with refineries running near seasonal capacity. Thin stocks make a late cargo, refinery outage or quality mismatch a prompt-price event. Buyers pay for reliable barrels, retailers pass through cost with a lag and carriers wait for fuel-surcharge formulas to reset.

The 2022 comparison isolates the product premium. Retail prices also include taxes, distribution and timing, but diesel has reached a similar nominal level with crude roughly $25–$34 cheaper. The gap is consistent with a larger availability and refining premium. The market will be easing when stocks rebuild and diesel cracks narrow together, rather than when Brent alone falls.

Hormuz raises the cost of the replacement barrel

CBS, citing Lloyd’s List Intelligence, reported 102 vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the latest week, down from 126 the week before; prewar traffic exceeded 130 transits per day. Counts are not barrel flows: a large crude tanker carries far more than a product tanker. They are an operating signal because fewer or slower crossings increase voyage time, rerouting and war-risk insurance.

The National reported US estimates that more than 9 million b/d were still moving through the southern part of the strait, with as much as 5 million b/d of pipeline capacity available. Aggregate flow can remain substantial while a distillate buyer faces scarcity at the required grade, terminal and delivery date. A functioning route still carries a risk premium when ships and insurers price the next crossing.

The September 5 tanker strikes followed the September 4 diesel record. US Central Command said US forces destroyed three Iranian crude-oil tankers after Iran targeted two US Navy warships. The strikes are a subsequent escalation; they raise the probability that freight and insurance premiums persist.

Contracts decide who absorbs the increase

Carriers with fast-reset fuel-surcharge formulas can recover higher diesel costs. Spot operators and smaller fleets pay first and recover later, while shippers receive the increase through freight rates. Manufacturers and retailers then face a delayed logistics cost even when fuel is a small share of direct spending.

The record will persist if US distillate stocks remain 14% below average, refinery runs cannot replenish them and Hormuz insurance keeps the replacement barrel expensive. A supply improvement requires higher production or imports to rebuild the buffer while product cracks, prompt freight and war-risk costs fall. Until those conditions meet, the record diesel price is a refinery-and-delivery margin event carried into the freight cycle.

Sources

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